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Why This Matters
$40M+ was extracted via Polymarket arbitrage in 2024–2025, according to academic research analyzing on-chain trading data. Real money. Real tools. Also real scams.
Cross-platform arbitrage — buying an outcome cheap on one prediction market and selling it expensive on another — remains one of the most reliable edges in the space. But as the opportunity has grown, so has the number of tools claiming to automate it. Some are legitimate. Some are closed-source black boxes. Some are outright scams designed to drain your wallet.
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Safety Score Legend
Open-source or audited, community-confirmed working. Multiple independent reports of successful use.
Limited community feedback, closed-source, or unverified claims. Not necessarily unsafe, but proceed with care and limit exposure.
Active scam or hack reports. Known security incidents or confirmed fund losses. Avoid until independently cleared.
Tool Comparison Table
| Tool | Type | Platforms | Custody | Safety |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ArbPoly | Automated bot | Polymarket, Kalshi, Drift | Claims non-custodial | Caution |
| ArbBets | Analytics + bot | Polymarket, Kalshi | Non-custodial | Verified |
| Eventarb | Calculator | Polymarket, Kalshi | No wallet needed | Verified |
| Hummingbot | Open-source bot | Multiple DEXs | Non-custodial | Verified |
| Matchr | Aggregator | Polymarket, Kalshi | No wallet needed | Verified |
| PolyScalping | Analytics | Polymarket | Non-custodial | Verified |
| Polytrage | Telegram alerts | Polymarket | Alerts only | Verified |
| OctoBot | Open-source bot | Multiple | Non-custodial | Verified |
| Alphascope | AI analytics | Polymarket, Kalshi | Analytics only | Verified |
| Predexon | Aggregator | Multiple | Non-custodial | Verified |
| PredictionlyAI | AI bot | Polymarket, Kalshi | Claims non-custodial | Caution |
How to Spot a Fake Arbitrage Tool
Check if hosted on free tier (Vercel free, Netlify free = red flag). Legitimate tools invest in infrastructure. A tool handling your wallet connections from a free-tier deployment is cutting corners where it matters most.
Look for an on-chain contract address you can verify. Real non-custodial tools have verifiable smart contracts on Polygonscan or Etherscan. If a tool claims to be non-custodial but has no contract address, it isn’t non-custodial.
Find community reviews older than 3 months. Scam tools rarely survive beyond their initial marketing push. Check Reddit, Discord, and Telegram for user reports that predate the tool’s current marketing campaign.
Check if wallet connection requires signing permissions vs read-only. Any tool asking for transaction-signing access to your wallet beyond what’s needed for the specific trades you’re making is a major red flag.
Verify the "non-custodial" claim. True non-custodial means the tool never holds your funds — trades execute directly through the platform’s smart contracts. Check if there’s a smart contract audit or open-source code to confirm.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the best Polymarket arbitrage tool?
For safety: Eventarb. It requires no wallet connection and runs as a pure calculator. For automation: ArbBets. It combines analytics with a non-custodial bot and has verified community feedback.
How much can you make arbitraging Polymarket?
$40M+ was extracted via Polymarket arbitrage in 2024–2025 across all arb traders, according to academic research. Individual returns depend on capital, speed, and market conditions. Edges are shrinking as more automated tools enter the space.
Is Polymarket arbitrage legal?
Yes. Arbitrage is legal. You are simply buying the same outcome at different prices on different platforms. There are no regulations prohibiting cross-platform prediction market arbitrage in any jurisdiction where the underlying platforms are legal to use.
What platforms can you arbitrage against Polymarket?
Kalshi, Manifold, Metaculus, Drift, and Augur. Kalshi is the most common counterparty because it offers the deepest liquidity on overlapping event markets. Drift provides on-chain futures that sometimes create synthetic arbitrage opportunities.
Do arbitrage bots work on Polymarket?
Yes, but edge is shrinking. Automated tools like ArbBets and Hummingbot can scan and execute faster than manual traders, but as more bots compete, price discrepancies close within seconds rather than minutes. The last defensible edge is resolution analysis — understanding when similar-sounding events have different resolution criteria.
What happened to Polycule?
Polycule was hacked in January 2026 for $230K via a Server-Side Request Forgery (SSRF) vulnerability. User funds were drained through the exploit. The incident underscored the importance of verifying custody models and checking for security audits before connecting your wallet to any arbitrage tool.